Four stakes · five cycle outcomes
1-3-2-6 Roulette Strategy: Stakes, Outcomes and Risk
The 1-3-2-6 roulette strategy sets a sequence of four stakes on an even-money bet. A win moves you to the next stake; a loss ends the cycle. Four wins finish at +12 units, but a win followed by a loss finishes at −2. The order of results matters.
Start each cycle.
After the first win.
After two wins.
After three wins.
The worked model below uses independent spins and standard 1:1 payouts. Zero loses the whole stake; 00 does too on an American wheel. On the 39-pocket triple-zero model, all three green outcomes lose. Changing stake size does not remove the house edge.
How to follow the four steps
Choose a fixed base unit and one even-money selection, such as red. If one betting unit is worth 5.00 in your chosen currency, the monetary stakes are 5.00, 15.00, 10.00 and 30.00. The selection determines what counts as a win; the progression determines how much is at stake.
- Start at the first level with one unit.
- After a win, move one level forward: 1 to 3, then 3 to 2, then 2 to 6.
- After any loss, end that cycle. If you continue playing, start a new cycle at one unit.
- After winning the six-unit bet, end the cycle at +12 units and reset to one.
- Before each stake, check the available bankroll and table limit. If the scheduled amount cannot be placed, stop the sequence.
A cycle contains at most four settled bets under these rules. A session can contain many cycles. A cycle reset does not restore money lost earlier in the session.
This betting system, also written as 1326, is usually grouped with positive progression systems because it advances after wins. That label does not mean every stake increases: the move from 3 to 2 reduces it. It is a different schedule from simply doubling each win. The Wizard of Odds description of 1-3-2-6 documents the four-level sequence; the calculations below apply the stated roulette model.
Every way a 1-3-2-6 cycle can finish
W means a full 1:1 win; L means a full loss. Net is the sum of profits and losses since the start of the cycle, with winning stakes excluded from profit.
The five endings
| Path | Net calculation | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| L | −1 | −1 unit |
| WL | +1 − 3 | −2 units |
| WWL | +1 + 3 − 2 | +2 units |
| WWWL | +1 + 3 + 2 − 6 | 0 units |
| WWWW | +1 + 3 + 2 + 6 | +12 units |
A losing spin can end a profitable cycle. In WWL, the third bet loses two units, but the first two wins already earned four. The completed cycle is still +2.
Three wins do not secure a profit if you take the fourth bet. At WWW you are +6. Losing the next six-unit stake brings the cycle back to zero. Stopping at +6 instead is a different stopping rule and changes the probability table.
A four-unit bankroll: one unit worth 5.00
Suppose the starting bankroll is 20.00 and one betting unit is worth 5.00: you have four betting units. The table permits the full 1-3-2-6 sequence. Every amount in the following bankroll table is money in the same chosen currency, not a count of betting units. Bet on red throughout. Here is a cycle with three wins followed by a loss.
| Step | Bankroll before | Stake | Result | Bankroll after | Cycle net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 5 | W | 25 | +5 |
| 2 | 25 | 15 | W | 40 | +20 |
| 3 | 40 | 10 | W | 50 | +30 |
| 4 | 50 | 30 | L | 20 | 0 |
The last loss creates a 30 drawdown from the peak of 50, even though the cycle breaks even. Those earlier winnings were part of the player’s bankroll, not free money.
Two short cycles can exhaust the same bankroll
Play WL, reset, then WL again. The first cycle changes 20 to 25 to 10. The second changes 10 to 15 to 0. All four stakes were affordable when placed, yet the session loses the full 20.
What is the minimum to fund one cycle?
In this exact model, two base units at the start can fund every possible path of one cycle if winnings are immediately available. After the first win, the bankroll becomes three units, exactly enough for the second stake. Starting with only one unit cannot fund that stake after a win.
This is a mathematical funding threshold, not a recommended bankroll. It provides no reserve for another losing cycle. At a table maximum of 20 with a base unit of 5, the fourth stake of 30 is prohibited even if the bankroll can cover it. Stopping after WWW then leaves +30, an interrupted cycle rather than the standard four-bet result.
Largest single stake. Also the largest peak-to-trough drawdown within one complete cycle.
Total amount wagered along the four-win path. It is turnover, not the starting bankroll requirement.
Worst loss from a completed cycle’s starting point. Repeated cycles can lose much more.
Cycle probabilities across three wheel formats
For a standard even-money selection, let p be the chance of winning one spin and q = 1 − p. On a European wheel p = 18/37; on an American wheel p = 18/38; on a 39-pocket triple-zero wheel p = 18/39. The 1-3-2-6 net outcomes stay the same; their probabilities change with the wheel. The probabilities of L, WL, WWL, WWWL and WWWW are q, pq, p²q, p³q and p⁴. They add to one.
| Path | Net units | European | American | Triple zero |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L | -1 | 51.35% | 52.63% | 53.85% |
| WL | -2 | 24.98% | 24.93% | 24.85% |
| WWL | +2 | 12.15% | 11.81% | 11.47% |
| WWWL | 0 | 5.91% | 5.59% | 5.29% |
| WWWW | +12 | 5.60% | 5.03% | 4.54% |
A profitable cycle is either WWL or WWWW. That is 17.75% on the European wheel, 16.84% on the American wheel and 16.01% on the triple-zero wheel. Breaking even is a separate outcome, not a win. These percentages describe one cycle, not the chance that a multi-cycle session finishes ahead.
After three consecutive wins, the chance of winning the fourth bet remains p. Reaching the six-unit level does not make a win more likely. The odds and repeated-spin calculator explains how conditional probabilities differ from the chance of an entire sequence.
Expected loss follows the amount wagered
The second stake is reached with probability p, the third with p² and the fourth with p³. Therefore:
Expected turnover per cycle = 1 + 3p + 2p² + 6p³.
Independently summing each final net multiplied by its path probability gives the following averages. All three models retain a negative expectation; a different stake schedule does not cancel the cost of the zero pockets.
| Wheel | Expected net, units | Expected turnover, units | Expected bets | Loss / turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European | -0.098 | 3.62 | 1.84 | 2.70% |
| American | -0.185 | 3.51 | 1.80 | 5.26% |
| Triple zero | -0.262 | 3.40 | 1.77 | 7.69% |
The loss-to-turnover ratios are exactly 1/37, 2/38 and 3/39 before rounding. The 39-pocket rules and payouts explain how the extra green outcome affects standard bets.
Expected spin count is a different quantity: 1 + p + p² + p³, shown in the “Expected bets” column. Do not confuse bets counted with units wagered. For the connection between turnover and long-run cost, see the RTP and house-edge explanation.
These averages apply to the complete-cycle model. A finite session that stops early needs its actual placement and stopping rules included in the calculation.
1-3-2-6 versus Paroli and Martingale
| System | Stake path | After a loss | Winning-cycle finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-3-2-6 | 1, 3, 2, 6 after wins | Reset to 1 | Four wins: +12 units |
| Three-win Paroli | 1, 2, 4 after wins | Reset to 1 | Three wins: +7 units |
| Basic Martingale | 1, 2, 4, 8 after losses | Double if affordable and permitted | First win: +1 if every required stake was placed |
The second bet exposes an important difference. WL loses two units with 1-3-2-6 but one with Paroli. After WWL, 1-3-2-6 keeps two units of profit, while three-win Paroli loses one. The smaller third stake changes where the risk sits.
Paroli finishes its target after three wins; 1-3-2-6 asks for a fourth. Comparing just +12 against +7 ignores different event probabilities and amounts wagered. Compare the three-win Paroli cycle and Martingale bankroll requirements using the same wheel, base unit and session limits.
Unlike this four-step schedule, the Oscar’s Grind one-unit target cycle can continue through losses with no fixed number of bets. For a broader comparison, use the staking-system overview. The session simulator can illustrate fixed bets and its listed progression modes; its existing modes should not be mistaken for a dedicated 1-3-2-6 model.
Check your reading of the sequence
If one betting unit is worth 2.00, what is the monetary profit from WWL?
The monetary stakes are 2.00, 6.00 and 4.00. Net profit is +2.00 + 6.00 − 4.00 = +4.00, equal to two betting units. The losing third spin ends the cycle; the next cycle starts at 2.
Does WWWL lose the whole session’s profit?
It gives back the six betting units earned within that cycle and ends that cycle at zero. Profit or loss from earlier cycles remains in the session balance.
Can the same arithmetic be used on a dozen?
No. A dozen pays 2:1 and has a different win probability. You can apply the stake sequence to it, but the five net results and probabilities on this page no longer apply. Check the standard payout ratios before transferring a staking rule to another bet.
Check the table before choosing a unit
Confirm the minimum bet, maximum bet and treatment of zero. A six-unit scheduled stake must fit both your available balance and the table’s limit. Changing the unit halfway through a cycle changes the monetary outcomes shown here.
For comparisons of online table formats and rules, see https://roulettecalc.com/casinos/.